Arrhythmias & electrophysiologyCohort study
Rising burden of atrial fibrillation relative to other major cardiovascular diseases: nationwide trends over 2000–2022 and projections to 2040
- Nationwide cohort study
- registry-based
- age-period-cohort modelling with projections
Authors' conclusion
AF has become the most frequently diagnosed and prevalent major CVD, with a growing burden surpassing HF, MI, and stroke in older adults.
Study context
- Population
- Danish individuals aged 20–94 years, national registries
- Exposure
- Atrial fibrillation (AF) vs heart failure (HF) vs myocardial infarction (MI) vs Stroke
- Outcome
- Incidence and prevalence trends of AF, HF, MI and stroke, projected to 2040
- Follow-up
- 2000 to 2022; projections to 2040
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Incidence and prevalence, projected change by 2040 · 2040
| Group | Incidence change | New cases | Prevalence change | Prevalent cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 28% | 20 683 to 26 376 | 56% | 175 697 to 274 379 |
| HF | decrease by 2% | 52% | ||
| MI | decline by 30% | decrease by 3% | ||
| Stroke | decrease by 2% | 31% |
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
New cases, age 65-94 years · 2040
- New AF cases projected to surpass combined new cases of HF, MI and stroke
Original publication
Rising burden of atrial fibrillation relative to other major cardiovascular diseases: nationwide trends over 2000–2022 and projections to 2040. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 24 February 2026. doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwag078
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it