Heart failure & cardiomyopathiesDiagnostic or prognostic study
Risk calculator of multimorbid risk of rehospitalization and death from heart failure: including the contribution of the gut microbiome
- Prognostic model development and validation study
- split-sample validation (70:30)
- two independent heart failure (HF) cohorts combined
Authors' conclusion
A novel risk model and score were derived that showed the contribution of comorbidities including the added value of the gut-heart axis on risk stratification of HF patients on rehospitalization and death.
Study context
- Population
- Inpatients with HF from two combined independent European studies
- Comparison
- Training vs Validation
- Outcome
- Death and/or rehospitalization due to HF (death/HF)
- Follow-up
- 1 year
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination of 11-variable risk model for death/HF
| Test or model | Diagnostic performance | C-statistic |
|---|---|---|
| Training | 0.71 | |
| Validation | 0.70 |
- Validation C-statistic P value
- P < 0.001
Further findings
Incidence of death/HF by risk score category (3 groups: low/mid/high; 2 groups: low/high)
- Increased incidence of death/HF in highest-risk patients with both approaches
- P < 0.001
Original publication
Risk calculator of multimorbid risk of rehospitalization and death from heart failure: including the contribution of the gut microbiome. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 28 April 2025. doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwaf270
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it