Heart failure & cardiomyopathiesResearch article
Short-Term Effects of Ambient Temperature on Acute Heart Failure Decompensation: Phenotype-Specific Risk in a Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Study
- time-stratified case-crossover design with distributed lag nonlinear models
Authors' conclusion
Low ambient temperature increased ADHF risk, especially in older adults, while temperature effects differed by hemodynamic phenotype. Incorporating temperature exposure into risk assessment may enable targeted prevention of climate-related decompensation.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure (ADHF) registered in the Tokyo Cardiovascular Care Unit Network Database between January 2014 and December 2019patients with ADHF
- Participants
- 26,874 patients
- Comparison
- association between ambient temperature and ADHF admissions over lag days 0 to 5
Main finding
Risk of ADHF · lag days 0 to 5
Estimate
1.80
95% CI 1.40–2.31
As reported in the abstract
Further findings
Subgroups by age
- This risk was larger in patients aged ≥70 years and otherwise consistent across subgroups
ADHF by hemodynamic profile
- ADHF with low blood pressure: odds ratio at the 99th percentile, risk increasing at high temperatures
- 6.25 [95% CI, 1.07-36.6]
- risk for ADHF with hypertension rose at low temperatures
Original publication
Short-Term Effects of Ambient Temperature on Acute Heart Failure Decompensation: Phenotype-Specific Risk in a Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Study. Circ Heart Fail. Published 28 May 2026. doi:10.1161/circheartfailure.125.013934
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it