Heart failure & cardiomyopathies

Survival Odds to Minimize Risk Heterogeneity Bias in Heart Failure Trials: Application to Dapagliflozin

Circ Heart FailPublished Methodological study

Authors' conclusion

In HF trials, the survival proportional odds model is a viable and more robust alternative for analyzing time to event outcomes, also providing an intuitive interpretation of the treatment effect directly linked to survival probability: improved odds of being event-free in the active group compared with the control group.

Study context

Population
Patients with heart failure (HF) in 2 dapagliflozin trials (DAPA-HF: HFrEF; DELIVER: mildly reduced or preserved EF)2 RCTs
Comparison
Survival proportional odds model vs Cox regression
Methodological detailssecondary analysis of the DAPA-HF and DELIVER randomised trials with simulation study, reanalysis of 2 RCTs
  • Secondary analysis of the DAPA-HF and DELIVER randomised trials with simulation study
  • Reanalysis of 2 RCTs

Primary result

As reported in the abstract

  • Nonproportional hazards a larger issue in the HFpEF population of DELIVER than in the more homogeneous HFrEF population of DAPA-HF
  • In simulations, survival proportional odds model more robust to heterogeneity, with higher power than Cox regression in high-heterogeneity populations; similar or slightly worse in more or less heterogeneous populations
  • Reanalyses: consistently higher power with survival proportional odds model in DELIVER; similar power in DAPA-HF

Original publication

Survival Odds to Minimize Risk Heterogeneity Bias in Heart Failure Trials: Application to Dapagliflozin. Circ Heart Fail. Published 31 October 2025. doi:10.1161/circheartfailure.125.013496

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