Cohort study

Systolic blood pressure variability: risk of cardiovascular events, chronic kidney disease, dementia, and death

Eur Heart JPublished

  • Prospective cohort study
  • UK Biobank

Authors' conclusion

An increase in SBPV over time was associated with an elevated risk of CVD, CKD, and overall mortality.

Study context

Population
UK Biobank participants in primary care with ≥3 SBP values at 5–10 and 0–5 years before enrolment
Participants
36,251 participants
Exposure
Change in visit-to-visit systolic blood pressure variability (SBPV) between two periods before enrolment
Outcome
CVD, CHD, stroke, AF, HF, CKD, dementia and overall mortality
Follow-up
Median 13.9 years

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

CVD, CHD, stroke, CKD, overall mortality

Increased SBPV from Period 1 to Period 2 significantly associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, chronic kidney disease (CKD) and overall mortality (all P for trend < .005)

23%-33%

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

Non-linearity (restricted cubic spline)

No non-linear associations
>.05

SBPV change patterns: consistently high vs consistently low SBPV

Increased risk of CVD, CHD, stroke, and flutter (AF), heart failure (HF), CKD and overall mortality
28%-46%

Subgroup and sensitivity analyses

Associations remained largely unchanged

Original publication

Systolic blood pressure variability: risk of cardiovascular events, chronic kidney disease, dementia, and death. Eur Heart J. Published 18 April 2025. doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehaf256

Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it