Cohort study
Temporal trends in lifetime risks of atrial fibrillation and its complications between 2000 and 2022: Danish, nationwide, population based cohort study
- Nationwide population-based cohort study
- Danish
- prespecified periods
Authors' conclusion
Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation increased over two decades of follow-up. In individuals with atrial fibrillation, about two in five developed heart failure and one in five had a stroke over their remaining lifetime after atrial fibrillation diagnosis, with no or only small improvement over time.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals without AF at ≥45 years of age, Denmark, 2000–2022; those with incident AF and no prevalent complication followed for HF, stroke or MI362,721 with incident AF
- Participants
- 3.5 million individuals
- Exposure
- 2011-22 vs 2000-10
- Outcome
- Lifetime risk of AF and lifetime risks of complications after AF
Main finding
Lifetime risk of AF
Difference
6.7 %
95% CI 6.5%–6.8%
By group
2011-22 vs 2000-10
difference 6.7 % (95% CI 6.5%–6.8%)
As reported in the abstract
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | 2000-10 | 2011-22 | difference (CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lifetime risk of HF after AF · HF was the most frequent complication after AF | 42.9% | 42.1% | −0.8% (−3.8% to 2.2%) | |
| −4−2024Difference (linear scale) |
- Lifetime risk of HF after AF — Years lost with no HF in individuals with AF
- 14.4 years
Lifetime risk of stroke after AF
- Decreased slightly between the two periods
- from 22.4% to 19.9%
- Difference
- −2.5% (−4.2% to −0.7%)
Lifetime risk of MI after AF
- Decreased slightly between the two periods
- from 13.7% to 9.8%
- Difference
- −3.9% (−5.3% to −2.4%)
Decrease by sex
- No evidence of a differential decrease between men and women
Original publication
Temporal trends in lifetime risks of atrial fibrillation and its complications between 2000 and 2022: Danish, nationwide, population based cohort study. BMJ. Published 17 April 2024. doi:10.1136/bmj-2023-077209
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it