The Global Syndemic of Modifiable Cardiovascular Risk Factors Projected From 2025 to 2050

doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2025.04.061

Prevention & lipidsResearch article

The Global Syndemic of Modifiable Cardiovascular Risk Factors Projected From 2025 to 2050

J Am Coll CardiolPublished 22 Jul 2025

Forecasting study (GBD 2021 modelling analysis)

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Authors' conclusion

Although the projected decline in age-standardized DALYs of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors suggest improved management of CVDs, crude DALYs will continue to rise due to population growth and aging.

Study context

Population: Global population, GBD super-regions, by sex, sociodemographic index and age

Comparison: High systolic blood pressure (SBP) vs High low-density lipoprotein cholesterol vs High body mass index (BMI) vs Tobacco use vs High fasting plasma glucose
Outcome: Age-standardized DALYs attributable to modifiable CV risk factors
Follow-up: 2050

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Age-standardized DALYs

High SBP1,694.295% UI 1,454.6–1,933.9 · per 100,000 population

High LDL-C657.695% UI 511.9–803.3 · per 100,000 population

High BMI495.295% UI 330.8–659.6 · per 100,000 population

Tobacco use493.795% UI 378.2–609.1 · per 100,000 population

High fasting plasma glucose466.795% UI 311.9–621.5 · per 100,000 population

Further findings

Crude disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), 2025 to 2050

High SBP: rise by 99 million DALYs: 44.1% increase
High BMI: increase by 44 million DALYs: 88.0% increase
Overall crude DALYs projected to rise

Original publication

The Global Syndemic of Modifiable Cardiovascular Risk Factors Projected From 2025 to 2050. J Am Coll Cardiol. Published 22 July 2025. doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2025.04.061

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Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it