Arrhythmias & electrophysiology
The optimal lookback period for estimating incidence and temporal trends in atrial fibrillation
Authors' conclusion
Using a fixed 4-year lookback period, we ensured a consistent and reproducible estimation of AF incidence and observed a steady increase in prevalence.
Study context
- Population
- Adults aged ≥20 years diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (AF), Korean claims data 2011–2021
- Participants
- 1,185,366 adults
- Exposure
- Lookback periods for defining incident AF
- Outcome
- Age- and sex-standardized AF incidence rate across lookback periods; AF prevalence
Methodological detailsnationwide, claims data
- Nationwide
- Claims data
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Standardized AF incidence rate in 2021, 10-year lookback
2.14 per 1000 person-years
Fixed 4-year lookback incidence, 2015
2.24 per 1000 person-years
Fixed 4-year lookback incidence, 2021
2.32 per 1000 person-years
AF prevalence, 2015 to 2021
1.17% to 1.92%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Original publication
The optimal lookback period for estimating incidence and temporal trends in atrial fibrillation. Heart Rhythm. Published 29 August 2025. doi:10.
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