Coronary disease & ACSResearch article
The time-varying prognostic value of stenosis and plaque burden in coronary artery disease
- Cox models
Authors' conclusion
Coronary diameter stenosis holds the highest prognostic significance for short-term cardiovascular events, while plaque burden predicts events in the long term.
Study context
- Population
- Patients without a documented cardiac history who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography for suspected coronary artery disease235 events during a median follow-up of 6.9 years
- Participants
- 2,819 patients
- Comparison
- Time-varying risk for cardiovascular events associated with diameter stenosis (DS%) and plaque burden
- Outcome
- Composite of:
- All-cause mortality
- Non-fatal myocardial infarction
- Follow-up
- Maximal 8 years
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI)
DS%short-term events at 1-year follow-up; predictive
1.028(1.013–1.044)
PAVshort-term events at 1-year follow-up; not predictive
1.015(0.978–1.053)
PAVlong-term events at 8-year follow-up; predictive
1.035(1.021–1.050)
DS%long-term events at 8-year follow-up; not predictive
1.005(0.999–1.012)
Further findings
Predictive value of DS% before vs after 1 year of follow-up
| Comparison | aHR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| DS% · <1 year | 1.027 (1.012–1.042) | |
| DS% · 1-8 years | 1.001 (0.994–1.008) | |
| 0.512Adjusted hazard ratio (log scale) |
- Predictive value of DS% before vs after 1 year of follow-up — Difference between periods for DS%
- P < 0.01
- Predictive value of DS% before vs after 1 year of follow-up — Predictive value of percentage atheroma volume (PAV) did not significantly change
- P = 0.12
Original publication
The time-varying prognostic value of stenosis and plaque burden in coronary artery disease. Eur Heart J Cardiovasc Imaging. Published 28 January 2026. doi:10.1093/ehjci/jeag022
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it