Pulmonary vascular disease & thromboembolismCohort study
The Vienna Prediction Model for identifying patients at low risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism: a prospective cohort study
- Prospective cohort study
Authors' conclusion
In this prospective evaluation of the performance of the VPM, the 1-year rate of recurrence in patients with unprovoked VTE was 5.2%.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) and a Vienna Prediction Model (VPM)-predicted 1-year recurrence risk of ≤5.5%, assessed 3 weeks after anticoagulation withdrawal520 low risk followed
- Participants
- 818 patients
- Outcome
- Recurrent VTE
- Follow-up
- 2 years
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Recurrent VTE (low-risk patients)
Recurrence risk at 1 year
5.2% (95% CI 3.2-7.2)
Recurrence risk at 2 years
11.2% (95% CI 8.3-14)
Non-fatal recurrences (median 23.9 months)
52
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Model calibration
- Calibration adequate after 1 year
- VPM underestimated recurrence risk in patients with 2-year recurrence rate >5%
- Post-hoc recalibration of baseline hazard; bootstrap validation confirmed ideal observed/expected ratio
- post-hoc analysis
Recurrence by sex and site of incident VTE
- Highest in men with proximal DVT or PE; lower in women regardless of site
Original publication
The Vienna Prediction Model for identifying patients at low risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism: a prospective cohort study. Eur Heart J. Published 28 September 2023. doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehad618
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it