Prevention & lipidsCross-sectional study
Thirty-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Among US Adults Aged 30 to 59 Years
- cross-sectional analysis of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey
- survey weighting to generate nationally representative estimates
Authors' conclusion
Use of the Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events 30-year ASCVD risk equations would identify a population of US adults with low 10-year but high 30-year risk who may warrant enhanced primary prevention strategies.
Study context
- Population
- US adults aged 30 to 59 years without known atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2017 to March 2020 cycleparticipants without known ASCVD, representative of 101.9 million (95% CI, 92.2–111.6) US adults
- Participants
- 3,229 adults
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Mean estimated 10-year ASCVD risk · 10 years
Mean estimated 10-year ASCVD risk
2.0% (95% CI, 1.9%-2.1%)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Mean estimated 30-year ASCVD risk
- Mean 30-year risk
- 9.7% (95% CI, 9.4%-10.1%)
Statin use among those with high estimated 30-year ASCVD risk
- Share of population with high estimated 30-year ASCVD risk
- 9%
- Reported statin use, of those with high 30-year risk
- 32.4% (95% CI, 24.0%-40.7%)
Uncontrolled risk factors among adults with high 30-year ASCVD risk
- Elevated blood pressure, of those with high 30-year risk
- 70.8% [95% CI, 62.4%-79.2%]
- Obesity, of those with high 30-year risk
- 59.9% [95% CI, 52.6%-67.2%]
- Elevated total cholesterol, of those with high 30-year risk
- 56.2% [95% CI, 45.5%-66.9%]
Expanding primary prevention statins to adults with high 30-year ASCVD risk · over 10 years
- Adults not currently receiving statins whose recommendations would change
- 2.5 million (95% CI, 1.9-3.2)
- Average number needed to treat over 10 years to prevent 1 ASCVD event
- 78.3 (95% CI, 74.6-82.0)
Original publication
Thirty-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Among US Adults Aged 30 to 59 Years. Circ Popul Health Outcomes. Published 12 January 2026. doi:10.1161/circoutcomes.125.012348
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it