Prevention & lipidsDiagnostic or prognostic study
Transformer-based models for predicting cardiovascular risk in Chinese adults: development and validation
- Prediction model development and validation study
- sex-specific models
- external validation in two independent cohorts
Authors' conclusion
The transformer-based China-AIHeart models predicted 10-year CVD risk and outperformed traditional Cox-based approaches, providing a practical tool for risk stratification in Chinese adults.
Study context
- Population
- Chinese adults without cardiovascular disease (CVD) (China Cardiometabolic Disease and Cancer Cohort; external: Xinjiang and CHARLS cohorts)derivation cohort
- Participants
- 156,790 adults
- Comparison
- China-AIHeart vs Cox models
- Outcome
- 10-year CVD risk prediction
- Follow-up
- 10 years
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination (C-statistic)
China-AIHeart
.767 [.754-.779]
C-statistic, men · C-statistic, women .780 [.769-.791] · Calibration χ2, men 14.806 · Calibration χ2, women 9.326 · Brier score, men .104 · Brier score, women .077
- men
- ΔC-statistic .027 (95% CI .025-.028)
- women
- ΔC-statistic .031 (95% CI .029-.033)
- men
- net reclassification index .478 (95% CI .466-.492)
- women
- net reclassification index .560 (95% CI .551-.572)
Further findings
External validation C-statistics (men/women)
- Full model, Xinjiang
- .781/.825
- Simplified model, Xinjiang
- .748/.820
- Simplified model, CHARLS
- .740/.771
Original publication
Transformer-based models for predicting cardiovascular risk in Chinese adults: development and validation. Eur Heart J. Published 9 July 2026. doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehag517
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it