Prevention & lipidsCohort study
Trends in population attributable fraction of modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular diseases across three decades
- Prospective cohort study
- population-based
Authors' conclusion
Six modifiable risk factors to population-level global CVD risk decreased over time, but still explained 39% of total CVD in the latest decade.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals without established CVD, mean age 70 years, Rotterdam Study
- Participants
- 6,195 / 5,572 / 5,135
- Exposure
- Three epochs: 1990s vs 2000s vs 2010s
- Epoch 1990sn = 6,195
- Epoch 2000sn = 5,572
- Epoch 2010sn = 5,135
- Outcome
- PAF of six modifiable risk factors combined for global CVD
- Follow-up
- 5 years
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
PAF of the six risk factors combined for global CVD
Epoch 1990s (1989-93), combined PAF for global CVD
0.57 (0.47-0.65) (95% CI)
Epoch 2000s (1997-2001), combined PAF for global CVD
0.52 (0.39-0.62) (95% CI)
Epoch 2010s (2009-14), combined PAF for global CVD
0.39 (0.18-0.54) (95% CI)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Epoch 1990s | Epoch 2000s | Epoch 2010s |
|---|---|---|---|
| Largest single contributor to global CVD (PAF) | 0.37 (95% CI 0.28–0.44) | 0.34 (95% CI 0.22–0.43) | 0.20 (95% CI 0.06–0.32) |
| Risk factor | Hypertension | Hypertension | Smoking |
CHD, stroke, HF and sex
- Dyslipidaemia changed population-level CHD risk over time
- Stroke: hypertension a less significant, smoking a larger contributor over time
- HF: all risk factors non-significant population attributable fractions (PAFs) in Epoch 2010s
- PAFs of individual risk factors varied between women and men
Original publication
Trends in population attributable fraction of modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular diseases across three decades. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 27 June 2024. doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwae219
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it