Prevention & lipidsCohort study
Underestimation of cardiovascular risk by the SCORE2 model in primary care: a call for recalibration
- Retrospective cohort study
Authors' conclusion
These findings suggest the SCORE2 model may underestimate CVE risk in primary care, highlighting the need for calibration in this setting.
Study context
- Population
- Adult patients in the Netherlands with a CVE risk assessment at their general practitioner (GP) office
- Participants
- 205,548 patients
- Exposure
- SCORE2-predicted vs observed 10-year CVE risk
- Outcome
- Observed risk of a first CVE related to the results of the SCORE2 model
- Follow-up
- During
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
10-year CVE risk · 10 years
Mean observed 10-year risk
10.1%
Model-predicted risk
6.2%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
O/E ratio by sex
- O/E ratio, females
- 1.54
- O/E ratio, men
- 1.68
Observed 10-year CVE by age group
- <50 years, observed
- 6.9%
- ≥50 years, observed
- 11%
- <50 years, O/E ratio
- 1.78
- ≥50 years, O/E ratio
- 1.62
Patients potentially missing preventive treatment due to underestimation
- Approximately
- 35%
Original publication
Underestimation of cardiovascular risk by the SCORE2 model in primary care: a call for recalibration. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 27 April 2025. doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwaf253
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it