Prevention & lipidsDiagnostic or prognostic study
Using population-wide electronic health records for timely contemporary assessment of cardiovascular disease risk prediction model performance: COVID-19 impact on the SCORE2 models
- External validation study of risk prediction models
- population-wide EHR cohort
- nationwide
Authors' conclusion
The SCORE2-FOMs demonstrated good calibration and discrimination, suggesting that no adaptation is needed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals aged 40 to 89 years without prior cardiovascular diseases (CVD), England, followed from 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2023
- Participants
- 26.5 million individuals
- Comparison
- SCORE2 vs SCORE2-Diabetes vs SCORE2-OP
- Outcome
- Calibration and discrimination of the SCORE2 models for 10-year CVD risk
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination (C-index)
SCORE2
0.75
C-index · 95% CI 0.75–0.76
SCORE2-Diabetes
0.71
C-index · 95% CI 0.71–0.71
SCORE2-OP
0.65
C-index · 95% CI 0.65–0.65
- SCORE2 models overpredicted CVD risk in males
- 3% to 4%
- SCORE2 models overpredicted CVD risk in females
- 8% to 14%
Further findings
Incident CVD events · two years of follow-up
- Incident CVD events
- 239,815
SCORE2 calibration after recent COVID-19 hospitalisation (males aged 40-69 years)
- SCORE2 underestimated risk
- 2%
Original publication
Using population-wide electronic health records for timely contemporary assessment of cardiovascular disease risk prediction model performance: COVID-19 impact on the SCORE2 models. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 29 March 2026. doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwag179
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it