Arrhythmias & electrophysiology
Validation of a Novel Risk Prediction Score for Sudden Cardiac Death in the Framingham Heart Study
Authors' conclusion
The VFRisk score successfully predicted SCD in the FHS. The differences in discrimination between the 2 studies could partially be explained by the inability to distinguish shockable versus nonshockable events in the FHS.
Study context
- Population
- Participants of the original and offspring FHS (Framingham Heart Study) cohortscases (sudden cardiac death (SCD)) and randomly selected referents · cases 312 · referents 935Events: 312
- Predictors
- VFRisk, the sum of 12 risk factors, each multiplied by its respective points
- Predicted outcome
- sudden cardiac death (SCD)
Methodological detailsreferents frequency-matched (ratio of 1:3) to cases on age, sex, cohort, and exam
- Referents frequency-matched (ratio of 1:3) to cases on age, sex, cohort, and exam
Model performance
As reported in the abstract
C-statistic
SCD
0.71(95% CI, 0.66-0.77)
- Validated with good discrimination
Further findings
| Outcome | Odds ratio (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Odds of SCD per 1-unit increase in VFRisk score48% increase in odds of SCD | 1.48 (1.34–1.64) | |
| 0.512Odds ratio (log scale) |
Baseline characteristics of cases and referents
Men cases 70.8% · referents 70.8%
| Outcome | Cases | Referents |
|---|---|---|
| VFRisk score | 3.8 ± 2.8 | 1.8 ± 1.7 |
- VFRisk score: P <0.001
Odds of SCD by VFRisk quartile
- Highest vs lowest VFRisk quartile, odds of SCD
- 7.8-fold higher
Baseline characteristics of cases and referents
- SCD cases had significantly higher prevalence of diabetes, heart failure, stroke, atrial fibrillation, and myocardial infarction compared with the referents group
Original publication
Validation of a Novel Risk Prediction Score for Sudden Cardiac Death in the Framingham Heart Study. Circ Arrhythm Electrophysiol. Published 20 May 2025. doi:10.
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