Prevention & lipidsDiagnostic or prognostic study
Validation of the European SCORE2 algorithm in one European and one Latin-American cohort studies with contrasting populations
- Validation of the European SCORE2 algorithm in one European and one Latin-American cohort studies
Authors' conclusion
SCORE2 estimates modest to acceptable performance for predicting the 10-year CVD in Mexicans but performed less favourably in the Portuguese cohort, indicating a need for recalibration.
Study context
- Population
- Ethnically and socioeconomically diverse cohorts from Mexico and Portugaltwo cohorts · Mexico 95,660 · Portugal 1,216
- Participants
- 95,660 vs 1,216
- Comparison
- SCORE2 estimated 10-year risk of non-fatal and fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) against observed CVD events
- Mexicon = 95,660
- Portugaln = 1,216
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Frequency of CVD events by SCORE2 risk level
Low-moderate risk-profiles
0.7-1.0%
High risk-profiles
6.6-9.0%
Further findings
| Outcome | Mexico | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| Discrimination and classification performance | ||
| AROC | 0.762 | 0.718 |
| Sensitivity (95% CI) | 85.7 (84.2-87.2) | 95.0 (86.1-99.0) |
| Specificity | 42.8 (42.5-43.1) | 24.3 (21.9-26.9) |
| Harrell’s C | 0.717 | 0.692 |
| Brier’s score | 0.022 | 0.052 |
- Discrimination and classification performance — Positive predictive values
- below 7%
- Discrimination and classification performance — Negative predictive values
- above 98%
Calibration
- Mexico: good calibration, with a slight overestimation in the higher-risk categories
- Portugal: overestimation in higher-risk categories was more substantial
Original publication
Validation of the European SCORE2 algorithm in one European and one Latin-American cohort studies with contrasting populations. Eur Heart J Qual Care Clin Outcomes. Published 27 January 2026. doi:10.1093/ehjqcco/qcag009
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it