HypertensionCohort study
Worldwide trends in mortality for hypertensive heart disease from 1990 to 2019 with projection to 2034: data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study
- Global Burden of Disease analysis with age-period-cohort modelling
- age-period-cohort model
- Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) projection to 2034
Authors' conclusion
The HHD death burden in 2019 is vast and is expected to increase rapidly in the next decade, particularly for LMICs.
Study context
- Population
- Worldwide hypertensive heart disease (HHD) mortality, GBD 2019, 1990–2019
- Outcome
- HHD mortality trends (age, period, cohort effects) and projected HHD deaths
- Follow-up
- 1990–2019; projection to 2034
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Global HHD deaths
Global HHD deaths in 2019
1.16 million
Projected global HHD deaths in 2034 (largest increment in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs))
1.57 million
Annual percentage change in mortality 1990–2019, middle/high-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) countries
−2.06%
Annual percentage change in mortality 1990–2019, low SDI countries
−1.09%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Premature deaths (aged under 60 years), low SDI countries · 2019
- Proportion of premature deaths remained
- 24%
Country trends among LMICs
- Countries (incl. Indonesia, Philippines, Pakistan) with unfavourable or worsening risks for recent periods and birth cohorts
- 63
- Brazil, China and Ethiopia: improving trends over time and in recent birth cohorts
Original publication
Worldwide trends in mortality for hypertensive heart disease from 1990 to 2019 with projection to 2034: data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 4 September 2023. doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwad262
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it