Prevention & lipidsCross-sectional study
10-Year and 30-Year Risks of Cardiovascular Disease in the U.S. Population
- Cross-sectional study
- survey-weighted
- age-standardized
Authors' conclusion
Three in 10 U.S. adults aged 30 to 79 years have existing CVD or an elevated 10-year predicted risk of CVD, including >90% of adults aged >65 years. Two-thirds of middle-aged adults are without CVD but have an elevated 30-year CVD risk. Men and Black and Hispanic adults are higher risk.
Study context
- Population
- US adults aged 30 to 79 years, NHANES 2011–2020representing 160.6 million US adults
- Participants
- 14,184 adults
- Outcome
- Prevalence of elevated (≥7.5%) 10-year predicted risk of total CVD (PREVENT equations)
- Follow-up
- 10 years
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Total cardiovascular disease (CVD), survey-weighted prevalence
20.2%
Atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD)
10.7%
Heart failure (HF)
12.7%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Existing CVD prevalence
- All adults
- 9.6%
- Aged 65 to 79 years
- 26.8%
Elevated 10-year total CVD risk, by age
- Aged 30 to 44 years
- 1.0%
- Aged 45 to 64 years
- 18.3%
- Aged 65 to 79 years
- 66.3%
10-year risks of total CVD, ASCVD and HF, by sex, race and ethnicity
- Higher in men and in Black and Hispanic adults
- Mean 10-year risks modestly increased over time
Without CVD but elevated 30-year total CVD risk
- Aged 30 to 59 years
- 66.7%
- Aged 45 to 59 years
- 89.7%
- Men and Black adults had higher 30-year risks of ASCVD and HF
Original publication
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it