Heart failure & cardiomyopathies
A Polygenic Risk Score of Atrial Fibrillation Improves Prediction of Lifetime Risk for Heart Failure
Authors' conclusion
The PRSAF was associated with incident HF and its subtypes and had significant incremental value over an established HF risk prediction equation.
Study context
- Population
- White participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study; replication in ARIC Black and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) White participantsARIC Whites
- Participants
- 8,624 participants
- Exposure
- Risk-factor polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for incident heart failure (HF)
- Outcome
- Incident HF and its subtypes; risk prediction performance (C statistic)
- Follow-up
- 30 years
Methodological detailsmulti-cohort, replication in independent cohorts
- Multi-cohort
- Replication in independent cohorts
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Incident HF · 30 years
Hazard ratio (95% CI)
PRSAFstrongest association among PRSs
1.47(1.41–1.53)
- ARIC HF risk equation + PRSAF vs ARIC HF risk equation · 10-year risk prediction, C statistic 0.812 to 0.829
- ∆C 0.017 (95% CI 0.009–0.026)
- Incident HF cases
- 1922 (31% cumulative incidence)
- PRSs of atrial fibrillation (AF), body mass index (BMI) and coronary heart disease (CHD) associated with incident HF
- P < 0.001
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Incident HFrEF and HFpEF
| HR (95% CI) | ||
|---|---|---|
| PRSAFHFrEF | 1.43 (1.27–1.60) | |
| PRSAFHFpEF | 1.46 (1.33–1.62) | |
| 0.512Hazard ratio (log scale) |
Replication in ARIC Blacks and CHS Whites
- PRSAF associations with incident HF and subtypes, and improved risk prediction, replicated
- P < 0.050
Protein analyses
- NT-proBNP and 98 other proteins associated with PRSAF
Original publication
A Polygenic Risk Score of Atrial Fibrillation Improves Prediction of Lifetime Risk for Heart Failure. ESC Heart Fail. Published 22 January 2024. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →