Derivation and validation of a prediction model for long-term mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: the PREDICT-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction score
Authors' conclusion
The PREDICT-STEMI score is a simple tool for predicting long-term mortality and facilitating early risk stratification and inform clinical decision-making.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI)derivation cohort · Derivation cohort (STEMI network) 23,086 · EXAMINATION-EXTEND study (validation) 1,498 · Coronary Artery diSease Tracking registry (validation) 1,112
- Participants
- 23,086 patients
- Predictors
- PREDICT-STEMI score (0 to 206 points): age, diabetes mellitus, previous myocardial infarction, previous ischaemic stroke/transient ischaemic attack, haemodynamic status, three-vessel disease and mechanical circulatory support
- Predicted outcome
- long-term mortality
Methodological detailstime-to-event regression analysis, outcome-based cut-point optimisation analysis
- Time-to-event regression analysis
- Outcome-based cut-point optimisation analysis
Model performance
As reported in the abstract
Concordance index
Derivation cohort
0.81(95% CI 0.80 to 0.81)
Validation cohort (EXAMINATION-EXTEND)
0.81(95% CI 0.78 to 0.84)
Validation cohort (Coronary Artery diSease Tracking registry)
0.84(95% CI 0.81 to 0.87)
- Validation cohorts reported 'respectively', in the order EXAMINATION-EXTEND then Coronary Artery diSease Tracking registry
Further findings
- Optimal prediction model cut-off
- 60 points
- High vs low score: sixfold increased risk of long-term mortality in both the derivation and validation cohorts
Original publication
Derivation and validation of a prediction model for long-term mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: the PREDICT-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction score. Heart. Published 29 April 2026. doi:10.
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