Development and Evaluation of a Comprehensive Prediction Model for Incident Coronary Heart Disease Using Genetic, Social, and Lifestyle–Psychological Factors: A Prospective Analysis of the UK Biobank
Authors' conclusion
A PSSCHD was associated with incident CHD and its joint modeling with PRSCHD improved the performance of clinical risk calculators.
Study context
- Population
- UK Biobank participants recruited 2006–2010
- Participants
- 388,224 participants
- Exposure
- Clinical risk calculators with vs without polysocial score (PSS) and polygenic risk score (PRS) for coronary heart disease (CHD)
- Outcome
- Incident CHD (MI and/or coronary revascularization)
Methodological detailsprediction model development and evaluation, machine-learning and time-to-event analyses, Limitation: predominantly White cohort; possible healthy participant effect and ecological fallacy
- Prediction model development and evaluation
- Machine-learning and time-to-event analyses
- Limitation: predominantly White cohort; possible healthy participant effect and ecological fallacy
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Incident CHD
Hazard ratio (95% CI)P value
PSSCHD (per 1 SD increase)
1.43(1.38–1.49)
P < 0.001PRSCHD (per 1 SD increase)
1.59(1.53–1.66)
P < 0.001Per 1 SD increase, as printed
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Reclassification at 10-year CHD risk threshold 7.5% (adding PSSCHD and PRSCHD to pooled cohort equations (PCE))
- Participants reclassified
- 12%
- CHD risk in up- vs down-reclassified persons
- 1.86 times higher
- Improved net benefit vs PCE with good calibration
- Similar results with PREVENT and QRISK3
PSSCHD by ethnicity
- Non-White persons had higher PSSCHD than White persons
Original publication
Development and Evaluation of a Comprehensive Prediction Model for Incident Coronary Heart Disease Using Genetic, Social, and Lifestyle–Psychological Factors: A Prospective Analysis of the UK Biobank. Ann Intern Med. Published 10 December 2024. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →