Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population
Authors' conclusion
Among patients with vascular disease, there is very substantial variation in estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events. If all modifiable risk factors were at guideline-recommended targets, half of the patients would have a 10-year risk <10%.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with clinically manifest vascular disease (secondary prevention)validation n = 18,436
- Participants
- 6,904 patients
- Outcome
- Estimated risk of MI, stroke or vascular death (SMART score)
- Follow-up
- 10 years
Methodological detailsexternal validation
- External validation
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Estimated 10-year risk of recurrent major vascular event
Median 10-year risk (IQR 11%-28%)
17%
Patients with risk <10%
18%
Patients with risk >30%
22%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Residual 10-year risk if risk factors at guideline-recommended targets
- Median residual risk (IQR 7%-17%)
- 11%
- Patients with residual risk <10%
- 47%
- Patients with residual risk >30%
- 9%
External performance of SMART score
- Reasonable, apart from overestimation of risk in patients with 10-year risk >40%
Original publication
Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population. Circulation. Published 28 September 2016. doi:10.
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it