Prevention & lipidsDiagnostic or prognostic study
External Validation of the PREVENT Equations in a National Sample of US Adults
- external validation
- national electronic health record-based cohort
- individual-level patient data pooled from a collective of 30 health systems (Truveta)
Authors' conclusion
The PREVENT equations accurately and precisely estimate the 10-year risk of CVD, ASCVD, and HF in a large sample of US adults. These findings support the generalizability of the PREVENT equations to inform guideline-recommended risk assessment and preventive efforts.
Study context
- Population
- US adults aged 30 to 79 years without a history of prior cardiovascular disease (CVD) and with an ambulatory encounter in the electronic health record between 2013 and 2018adults included
- Participants
- 680,864 adults
- Comparison
- Outcome-specific PREVENT base equations against observed total CVD, atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) and heart failure (HF) through December 2024 defined by diagnosis codes
Further findings
| Outcome | PREVENT-CVD | PREVENT-ASCVD | PREVENT-HF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model performance (Harrell C statistic and calibration slope) · 10-year risk | |||
| C statistic (95% CI) | 0.788 (0.786-0.790) | Not reported in the abstract | Not reported in the abstract |
| calibration slope (95% CI) | 0.98 (0.95-1.01) | Not reported in the abstract | Not reported in the abstract |
| C statistic | Not reported in the abstract | 0.774 [0.771-0.777] | 0.824 [0.820-0.828] |
| calibration slope | Not reported in the abstract | 1.07 [1.04-1.10] | 1.01 [0.97-1.04] |
- Median 10-year predicted risk of PREVENT-CVD: women median 3.6% (IQR 1.3%–8.8%)
- Median 10-year predicted risk of PREVENT-CVD: men median 5.8% (IQR 2.5%–11.7%)
Cohort characteristics
- mean (SD) age
- 55 (13) years
- women
- 56%
- mean (SD) follow-up
- 6.8 (2.3) years
Incident events · mean (SD) follow-up of 6.8 (2.3) years
- incident CVD events
- 29 535
- incident ASCVD events
- 19 280
- incident HF events
- 16 824
Original publication
External Validation of the PREVENT Equations in a National Sample of US Adults. Circ Popul Health Outcomes. Published 5 August 2026. doi:10.1161/circoutcomes.125.012988
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it