Arrhythmias & electrophysiology

Five-Year Risk of Stroke after Transient Ischemic Attack (TIA) or Minor Ischemic Stroke

N Engl J MedPublished Prospective cohort study

Authors' conclusion

In a follow-up to a 1-year study involving patients who had a TIA or minor stroke, the rate of cardiovascular events including stroke in a selected cohort was 6.4% in the first year and 6.4% in the second through fifth years.

Study context

Population
Patients with TIA or minor ischemic stroke within 7 days before enrollment, TIA clinics in 21 countries, 2009–201142 of 61 sites
Participants
3,847 patients
Outcome
Composite of:
  • Stroke
  • ACS or CV death (whichever first)
  • Emphasis on events in years 2–5
Follow-up
5 years
Methodological details5-year follow-up of the TIA clinic registry, international registry, 21 countries, 42 sites, death treated as competing risk, Median per-centre 5-year follow-up 92.3% (IQR 83.4 to 97.8)
  • 5-year follow-up of the TIA clinic registry
  • International registry
  • 21 countries
  • 42 sites
  • Death treated as competing risk
  • Median per-centre 5-year follow-up 92.3% (IQR 83.4 to 97.8)

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Composite of:
  • Stroke
  • ACS
  • CV death

Patients with primary outcome event

469

Estimated cumulative rate

12.9%

95% CI 11.8 to 14.1

Events in years 2–5

235

50.1%

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Secondary outcomes

Stroke · 5 years

Patients with stroke
345
Estimated cumulative rate
9.5% (95% CI 8.5 to 10.5)
Stroke in years 2–5
149 (43.2%)

All-cause death and CV death · 5 years

All-cause death
10.6%
CV death
2.7%

Predictors of subsequent stroke (multivariable)

Ipsilateral large-artery atherosclerosis, cardioembolism and baseline ABCD2 score ≥4 each associated with increased risk of subsequent stroke

Safety

Intracranial hemorrhage and major bleeding · 5 years

Intracranial hemorrhage
1.1%
Major bleeding
1.5%

Original publication

Five-Year Risk of Stroke after TIA or Minor Ischemic Stroke. N Engl J Med. Published 16 May 2018. doi:10.1056/nejmoa1802712

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