Arrhythmias & electrophysiology
Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation/Flutter: Implications for Heart Failure Progression
Main finding · AF/AFL risk (causal effect of GERD; IVW, primary analytical method)Result — go to the resultOdds ratio 1.373 95% CI 1.208–1.600Authors' conclusion
Genetic liability to GERD independently increases AF/AFL risk, unaffected by obesity pathways. Considering the well-established role of AF/AFL in the pathogenesis and progression of HF, our findings position GERD as a potential modifiable target within the causal pathway. Identification and management of GERD may therefore contribute to reducing atrial arrhythmia burden and subsequent HF risk.
Study context
- Population
- European populations (genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary data)Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) cases 129,080 · GERD controls 473,524 · AF/AFL cases 22,068 · AF/AFL controls 116,926 · Obesity cases 4,793 · Obesity controls 209,884
- Comparison
- Bidirectional causal relationships
- Outcome
- AF/AFL risk (causal effect of GERD; IVW, primary analytical method)
Methodological detailsMultivariable MR (MVMR) adjusted for obesity
- Multivariable MR (MVMR) adjusted for obesity
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Odds ratio
1.373
95% CI 1.208–1.600
P = 0.017
GERD
OR 1.373 (95% CI 1.208–1.600); P = 0.017
Further findings
AF/AFL risk after MVMR adjustment for obesity
| Comparison | OR (95% CI) | P value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GERDMVMR adjusted for obesity | 1.303 (1.127–1.507) | P < 0.001 | |
| 0.512Odds ratio (log scale) |
Reverse causality
- Two-way analysis indicated no reverse causality
Sensitivity analyses
- Sensitivity analyses supported result robustness with minimal pleiotropy
Original publication
Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation/Flutter: Implications for Heart Failure Progression. ESC Heart Fail. Published 9 November 2025. doi:10.
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it