Prevention & lipidsSecondary analysis
Global burden of cardiovascular diseases: projections from 2025 to 2050
- Modelling study (projection from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data)
- Poisson regression
- subgroup analysis by GBD super-regions
Authors' conclusion
In the coming decades, the relatively constant age-standardized prevalence of global CVD suggests that the net effect of summative preventative efforts will likely continue to be unchanged. The fall in age-standardized cardiovascular mortality reflects the improvement in medical care following diagnosis. However, future healthcare systems can expect a rapid rise in crude cardiovascular mortality, driven by the ageing global populace. The continued rise in CVD burden will largely be attributed to atherosclerotic diseases.
Study context
- Population
- Global population; historical GBD 2019 mortality and DALY data 1990–2019
- Primary endpoint
- Projected cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and DALYs and their risk factors
- Follow-up
- 2025 to 2050
Primary result
As reported in the abstract
- Increase in cardiovascular prevalence
- 90.0%
- Increase in crude mortality
- 73.4%
- Increase in crude disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)
- 54.7%
- Cardiovascular deaths in 2050 (from 20.5 million in 2025)
- 35.6 million
- Change in age-standardized cardiovascular prevalence
- −3.6%
- Change in age-standardized mortality
- −30.5%
- Change in age-standardized DALYs
- −29.6%
Further findings
Leading cause and risk factor of CV deaths · 2050
- Ischaemic heart disease deaths (leading cause)
- 20 million
- Deaths driven by high SBP (main risk factor)
- 18.9 million
Highest age-standardized CV mortality rate by super-region · 2050
- Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia
- 305 deaths per 100 000 population
Original publication
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it