Heart failure & cardiomyopathies

Identification, Characterisation and Outcomes of Pre-Atrial Fibrillation in Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction

ESC Heart FailPublished Cohort study

Main findingResult — go to the resultHazard ratio 3.25 95% CI 2.00–5.28

Authors' conclusion

A pre-AF HFrEF subgroup with distinct CMR characteristics and poor prognosis may be identified

Study context

Population
Adults ≥18 years with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) without atrial fibrillation (AF), MATCH 1 and MATCH 2 studies (2018–2024), all with cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR)
Participants
385 adults
Exposure
High vs low FIND-AF risk
Outcome
Time to composite MACE:
  • HF hospitalisation
  • MI
  • Stroke
  • All-cause mortality
Follow-up
Median 2.5 years
Methodological detailsmachine learning risk stratification (FIND-AF)
  • Machine learning risk stratification (FIND-AF)

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Hazard ratio

3.25

95% CI 2.00–5.28

P < 0.001

Events by group

High FIND-AF riskvs Low FIND-AF risk
HR 3.25 (95% CI 2.00–5.28); P < 0.001

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Secondary outcomes

Outcomeβ (95% CI)P value
CMR findings by higher FIND-AF scoreHigher FIND-AF score · indexed LV mass4.7 (0.5–8.9)
CMR findings by higher FIND-AF scoreHigher FIND-AF score · indexed left atrial volume5.9 (2.2–9.6)
CMR findings by higher FIND-AF scoreHigher FIND-AF score · indexed LV end-diastolic volume9.55 (1.37–17.74)P = 0.022
CMR findings by higher FIND-AF scoreHigher FIND-AF score · native T118.0 (7.0–29.1)
CMR findings by higher FIND-AF scoreHigher FIND-AF score · extracellular volume1.6 (0.6–2.5)

Original publication

Identification, Characterisation and Outcomes of Pre-Atrial Fibrillation in Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction. ESC Heart Fail. Published 18 June 2025. doi:10.1002/ehf2.15347

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