Acute cardiac care & resuscitation
Nationwide trends and future projections of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Japan: a Bayesian age-period-cohort model and demographic decomposition analysis
Authors' conclusion
In Japan, the crude incidence rate of OHCA due to presumed cardiac origin increased from 2009 to 2023, and the incidence is projected to continue increasing through 2030. Japan's aging population and population decline represent a future scenario for countries worldwide, and our projections might apply to nations globally.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) of presumed cardiac origin in Japan, 2009–2023patients with OHCA of presumed cardiac origin over 15 years
- Participants
- 1,158,691 patients
- Exposure
- Effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the incidence of OHCA due to presumed cardiac origin
- Outcome
- Crude incidence rate per 100,000 persons
- Follow-up
- 2009 to 2023
Methodological detailsAll-Japan Utstein Registry, age-period-cohort model, Bayesian age-period-cohort model based on integrated nested Laplace approximations, demographic decomposition analysis
- All-Japan Utstein Registry
- Age-period-cohort model
- Bayesian age-period-cohort model based on integrated nested Laplace approximations
- Demographic decomposition analysis
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
2009
50.9
2023
72.8
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | RR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| OHCA risk by ageAged ≥90 years oldvs aged 45-49 years old | 41.0 (39.8–42.3) | |
| Period effect2019-2023 periodvs 2009-2013 period | 1.00 (0.99–1.02) | |
| Cohort effectBorn before 1921vs born in 1948Peak | 1.22 (1.20–1.24) | |
| 0.050.21520Relative risk (log scale) |
Decomposition of OHCA number changes · 2009 to 2023
- OHCA number change
- +25,591
- Population aging, share of the increase
- 100.5%
- Age-specific incidence, share of the increase
- 7.1%
- Population growth, share of the decrease
- 7.6%
Projected crude incidence rate per 100,000 persons · 2024 to 2030
- 2024
- 76.0 (95% PI: 73.6-78.3)
- 2030
- 97.2 (95%PI: 66.6-127.7)
Original publication
Nationwide trends and future projections of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Japan: a Bayesian age-period-cohort model and demographic decomposition analysis. Resuscitation. Published 10 March 2026. doi:10.
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