Heart failure & cardiomyopathies
Nomogram for Predicting Cardiac Death and Heart Transplantation in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy
Authors' conclusion
On the basis of a retrospective review of patients with ARVC at a single centre, we developed a novel nomogram for predicting the risk of cardiac death and HT after ARVC diagnosis.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) diagnosed at one institution, 2008–2022
- Participants
- 149 patients
- Outcome
- Nomogram performance for cardiac death and HT
Methodological detailsprognostic model development and internal validation, single-centre, competing risk nomogram, consecutive patients
- Prognostic model development and internal validation
- Single-centre
- Competing risk nomogram
- Consecutive patients
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
- AUC at 1, 3 and 5 years
- 0.860, 0.935, and 0.956
- Harrell's C-index
- 0.9273 (95% CI 0.8954-0.9590; P < 0.001)
- Cumulative incidence of primary outcomes differed between the 3 nomogram-derived risk groups
- P < 0.001
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Events and cumulative incidence of cardiac death and heart transplantation (HT) · median follow-up 5.8 years (IQR 0.62-5.56 years)
- Cardiac death
- 14
- HT
- 9
- 1-, 3- and 5-year cumulative incidence
- 3.35%, 8.05%, and 11.4%
Multivariable Cox analysis predictors
- Extent of TWI in anterior and inferior leads
- P = 0.0057
- Right atrial diameter on transthoracic echocardiography
- P = 0.0498
- RVEF
- P = 0.1036
- LVEF
- P < 0.001
- Authors report all showed statistical significance
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
Nomogram for Predicting Cardiac Death and Heart Transplantation in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy. ESC Heart Fail. Published 10 August 2023. doi:10.
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