Cardio-oncology & otherResearch article
Nonlinear Relation Between Cardiac Mortality and Excess Temperature in Heatwaves
- Case-crossover study
- nationwide
- individual-level
Authors' conclusion
The heatwave-HD relationships show nonlinear trends with risk thresholds for daytime-only and nighttime-only heatwaves, but a near-linear pattern for compound heatwaves. Amid global warming, the use of a traditional binary definition could underestimate the mortality risk and burden of HD patients associated with heatwaves.
Study context
- Population
- Heart disease deaths across Mainland China, 2013–2019
- Participants
- 2,392,254 heart disease (HD) deaths
- Comparison
- Compound vs Nighttime-only vs Daytime-only
- Outcome
- Exposure-response curves for heatwaves and cardiac-cause mortality using ECT-HW
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
HD mortality risk
Share of total HD deaths
| Outcome | Compound | Nighttime-only | Daytime-only |
|---|---|---|---|
| OR | 1.86 | 1.16 | 1.19 |
| Excess cardiac deaths | 41,869 | 9,092 | 9,809 |
Further findings
events
| Outcome | Compound | Nighttime-only | Daytime-only |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excess cardiac deaths by traditional binary heatwave metric | 27,036 | 2,871 | 4,785 |
Excess cardiac deaths by traditional binary heatwave metric
- Excess cumulative temperatures in heatwaves (ECT-HW) estimates exceeded those of the traditional metric
Sensitivity to compound heatwaves by cardiac cause
- Highest: sudden cardiac arrest, acute MI and HF; lowest: pulmonary heart disease
Original publication
Nonlinear Relation Between Cardiac Mortality and Excess Temperature in Heatwaves. J Am Coll Cardiol. Published 13 March 2025. doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2025.01.034
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it