Arrhythmias & electrophysiology
Performance and Validation of a Novel Biomarker-Based Stroke Risk Score for Atrial Fibrillation
Authors' conclusion
The biomarker-based ABC-stroke score was well calibrated and consistently performed better than both the CHA2DS2VASc and ATRIA stroke scores.
Study context
- Population
- Anticoagulated patients with AF in the RE-LY study
- Participants
- 8,356 patients · 16,137 person-years
- Comparison
- ABC-stroke score vs CHA2DS2VASc and ATRIA risk scores
- Outcome
- Stroke or systemic embolic events (calibration and C index)
Methodological detailscohort from the RE-LY randomised trial, external validation, adjudicated events
- Cohort from the RE-LY randomised trial
- External validation
- Adjudicated events
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Stroke/systemic embolism prediction
| Test or model | C index (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT)) | C index (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI)) | C index |
|---|---|---|---|
| ABC-stroke | 0.65 | 0.65 | Not reported in the abstract |
| CHA2DS2VASc | Not reported in the abstract | Not reported in the abstract | 0.60 |
| ATRIA | Not reported in the abstract | Not reported in the abstract | 0.61 |
C index (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT))
ABC-stroke0.65
CHA2DS2VAScNot reported in the abstract
ATRIANot reported in the abstract
C index (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI))
ABC-stroke0.65
CHA2DS2VAScNot reported in the abstract
ATRIANot reported in the abstract
C index
ABC-strokeNot reported in the abstract
CHA2DS2VASc0.60
ATRIA0.61
- ABC-stroke vs CHA2DS2VASc: P = 0.004 — hs-cTnT
- ABC-stroke vs CHA2DS2VASc: P = 0.022 — hs-cTnI
- ABC-stroke vs ATRIA: P = 0.005 — hs-cTnT
- ABC-stroke vs ATRIA: P = 0.034 — hs-cTnI
Further findings
Calibration of ABC-stroke score (hs-cTnT), events per 100 person-years by predefined risk group — Medium (1%-2%/y) vs Low (<1%/y)
HR 1.95
| Outcome | HR |
|---|---|
| Calibration of ABC-stroke score (hs-cTnT), events per 100 person-years by predefined risk groupHigh (>2%/y) vs Low (<1%/y) | 3.44 |
Original publication
Performance and Validation of a Novel Biomarker-Based Stroke Risk Score for Atrial Fibrillation. Circulation. Published 28 August 2016. doi:10.
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it