Heart failure & cardiomyopathies
Performance of the PREVENT-HF Equations Across Heart Failure Subtypes in Community-Based and Ambulatory Healthcare Samples
Authors' conclusion
PREVENT-HF demonstrated excellent discrimination for both HF subtypes across community-based cohorts and real-world samples, with consistently better discrimination for HFpEF as compared to HFrEF. Given PREVENT-HF was developed to estimate overall HF risk rather than subtype-specific risk, future studies are needed to establish subtype-specific risk thresholds.
Study context
- Population
- Adults aged 30–79 years without prevalent cardiovascular disease or heart failure (HF)No overall total printed, counts given per sample · Pooled cohort studies 23,652 · BIDMC 29,815 · MGB 138,999
- Participants
- Events: Pooled cohort studies: 1,232 developed HF (432 [35%] HFpEF, 522 [42%] HFrEF); BIDMC: 259 (1%) developed HF (133 [51%] HFpEF, 101 [39%] HFrEF); MGB: 1050 developed HF (586 [56%] HFpEF, 381 [36%] HFrEF)
- Predictors
- PREVENT-HF equations
- Predicted outcome
- 10-year incident HFrEF and HFpEF
Model performance
As reported in the abstract
AUROC
Pooled cohortsHFpEF
0.824(95% CI 0.807, 0.839)
Pooled cohortsHFrEF
0.789(95% CI 0.770, 0.807)
BIDMCHFpEF
0.897(95% CI 0.874, 0.918)
BIDMCHFrEF
0.833(95% CI 0.791, 0.869)
MGBHFpEF
0.864(95% CI 0.848, 0.880)
MGBHFrEF
0.797(95% CI 0.771, 0.820)
- PREVENT-HF demonstrated better discrimination for HFpEF than HFrEF across all samples
Further findings
| Outcome | Values |
|---|---|
| AP/event rate ratios for incident HFpEF and HFrEF · 10-year | Pooled cohorts AP/event rate ratio for HFpEF 2.92 (95% CI 2.47, 3.54) · AP/event rate ratio for HFrEF 2.66 (95% CI 2.33, 3.14) · BIDMC AP/event rate ratio for HFpEF 8.08 (95% CI 6.12, 12.30) · AP/event rate ratio for HFrEF 5.12 (95% CI 3.84, 8.17) · MGB AP/event rate ratio for HFpEF 6.84 (95% CI 5.66, 8.28) · AP/event rate ratio for HFrEF 4.12 (95% CI 3.37, 5.16) |
| Calibration (ICI) for incident HFpEF and HFrEF · 10-year | Pooled cohorts ICI for HFpEF 0.041 (95% CI 0.039, 0.043) · ICI for HFrEF 0.038 (95% CI 0.036, 0.040) |
Calibration (ICI) for incident HFpEF and HFrEF · 10-year
- Calibration was similar for HFpEF and HFrEF across samples
Original publication
Performance of the PREVENT-HF Equations Across Heart Failure Subtypes in Community-Based and Ambulatory Healthcare Samples. Circulation. Published 2 November 2026. doi:10.
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