Heart failure & cardiomyopathies
Predicting 30-day mortality after hospital admission for heart failure: the National Heart Failure Audit for England and Wales
Authors' conclusion
A risk model based on a few widely available variables accurately predicts mortality within 30 days of hospital admission for heart failure, which may enable fair comparisons between hospitals in England and Wales.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with a first admission coded as heart failure as the primary reason for admission, National Heart Failure Audit for England and Walesmodel development · Development 54,080 · 2018-2019 validation cohort 43,942
- Participants
- 54,080 patients
- Predictors
- Ten variables widely available in clinical practice
- Predicted outcome
- 30-day mortality from the day of admission
Methodological detailslogistic regression with robust SEs, temporal validation, geographical validation
- Logistic regression with robust SEs
- Temporal validation
- Geographical validation
Model performance
As reported in the abstract
C-statistic
30-day mortality
0.80(95% CI 0.79 to 0.81)
Calibration slope
1.00
95% CI 0.97 to 1.03
Calibration-in-the-large
−0.02
95% CI −0.06 to 0.01
Further findings
Observed vs predicted mortality
- Good agreement across all deciles of risk
Temporal validation (subsequent years)
- Model performance for subsequent years was similar
Geographical validation
- Similarly satisfactory
Original publication
Predicting 30-day mortality after hospital admission for heart failure: the National Heart Failure Audit for England and Wales. Heart. Published 6 January 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →