Heart failure & cardiomyopathiesDiagnostic or prognostic study
Predicting survival in patients with heart failure aged 80 years and older
- prognostic prediction model
- derivation cohort (randomly selected 70%) and validation cohort (remaining 30%)
- Cox proportional hazards model
- backward elimination (threshold: P < .001)
Authors' conclusion
The prognostic model developed in this study (JROADHF over 80 Score) demonstrated satisfactory performance in predicting mortality in a cohort of older Japanese patients with heart failure. Estimating prognosis based on factors obtainable in routine clinical practice has the potential for widespread implementation in clinical settings.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with heart failure aged ≥80 years from the JROADHF (The Japanese Registry of Acute Decompensated Heart Failure), followed up for 3 yearspatients aged ≥80 years (median age: 86 years, 41.8% were men) · derivation cohort 3,983 · validation cohort 1,707
- Participants
- 5,690 patients
- Comparison
- derivation cohort vs validation cohort
- derivation cohortn = 3,983
- validation cohortn = 1,707
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Deaths · During the follow-up period
patients died
2382
Further findings
Variables selected in the multivariable model
- variables selected from 31 potential risk factors: age, male sex, Barthel index, history of heart failure, systolic blood pressure, haemoglobin, albumin, blood urea nitrogen, b-type natriuretic peptide, sodium levels, and use of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors
- 11
Model performance for predicting mortality · 3 years
- Harrell’s C-statistic (acceptable discriminative ability)
- 0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.66-0.70
- calibration (Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test)
- P = 0.30
Original publication
Predicting survival in patients with heart failure aged 80 years and older. ESC Heart Fail. Published 20 January 2026. doi:10.1093/eschf/xvag033
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it