Pulmonary vascular disease & thromboembolism
Prediction and Risk Stratification for 30-Day Mortality in Stable Acute Pulmonary Embolism: Recalibration of the Multimarker Calculator and Evaluation of the AHA/ACC Classification
Authors' conclusion
The recalibrated MMC may be useful for individualized 30-day mortality risk estimation, whereas the AHA/ACC classification may offer a simple framework for phenotype-based risk grouping.
Study context
- Population
- Adults with haemodynamically stable acute pulmonary embolism (PE), Chinese multicentre cohort, 2012–2021patients analysed
- Participants
- 11,568 adultsEvents: 331 (2.9%)
- Predictors
- Multimarker calculator (MMC), original and recalibrated; 2019 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) model; 2026 AHA/ACC Acute PE Clinical Categories (AHA/ACC classification) in 7-, 4-, and simplified phenotype-based 3-category schemes
- Predicted outcome
- 30-day all-cause mortality
Model performance
As reported in the abstract
| Test or model | AUC |
|---|---|
| MMC | 0.704 |
| 7-category AHA/ACC classification | 0.680 |
| ESC model | 0.606 |
AUC
MMC0.704
7-category AHA/ACC classification0.680
ESC model0.606
Further findings
Mortality across the 3-category AHA/ACC classification · 30 days · mortality increased stepwise
Calibration of the original MMC, intermediate-high-risk mortality · 30 days
- Mean predicted risk
- 16.2%
- Observed risk
- 9.4%
- Original MMC overestimated intermediate-high-risk mortality
Recalibrated MMC, intermediate-high-risk subgroup · 30 days
- Intermediate-high-risk subgroup, share of patients
- 2.2%
- Observed mortality in the intermediate-high-risk subgroup
- 13.2%
- Recalibration improved calibration
Original publication
Prediction and Risk Stratification for 30-Day Mortality in Stable Acute Pulmonary Embolism: Recalibration of the Multimarker Calculator and Evaluation of the AHA/ACC Classification. Eur Heart J Acute Cardiovasc Care. Published 28 October 2026. doi:10.
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