Heart failure & cardiomyopathiesCohort study
Predictors of long-term adverse course in acute myocarditis: a multicentre cohort study
- Retrospective cohort study
- multicentre (seven hospitals)
Authors' conclusion
This study developed two predictive models that exhibited strong performance in discrimination, accuracy, and clinical applicability. A cTnI level of 10 000 pg/mL can serve as a threshold for predicting CAM and CHF. Furthermore, patients with CAM had a significantly higher risk of progressing to CHF in later stages.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with acute myocarditis proven by cardiac MRI or endomyocardial biopsy, April 2013 to January 2024
- Participants
- 483 patients
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
AUC
0.881 (95% CI 0.829-0.934)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Chronic heart failure (CHF) by chronic active myocarditis (CAM)
| Comparison | HR (95% CI) | P value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAM | 9.43 (5.55–16.02) | P < 0.001 | |
| 0.050.21520Hazard ratio (log scale) |
CHF prediction model (CPR or defibrillation, CRP, LDH, ALT, CK-MB, cardiac troponin I (cTnI), LV end-diastolic diameter)
- AUC
- 0.872 (95% CI 0.788-0.925)
- Clinical utility supported by decision curve analysis
Internal and external validation
- Results consistent with development cohort
cTnI threshold (restricted cubic spline)
- Risks of CAM and CHF significantly increased only when cTnI exceeded 10 000 pg/mL
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it