Projected Change in the Burden of Excess Cardiovascular Deaths Associated With Extreme Heat by Midcentury (2036–2065) in the Contiguous United States
Authors' conclusion
By midcentury, extreme heat is projected to be associated with a significantly greater burden of excess cardiovascular deaths in the contiguous United States.
Study context
- Population
- Adults in counties of the contiguous US; extreme heat day = maximum heat index ≥90 °F [32.2 °C]
- Comparison
- Projected midcentury (2036–2065) vs baseline (2008–2019) excess CV deaths associated with extreme heat
- Outcome
- Excess CV deaths per year associated with extreme heat
- Follow-up
- Midcentury (2036–2065)
Methodological detailshealth impact projection, county-level, Poisson fixed-effects model, 2 emissions/socioeconomic scenarios
- Health impact projection
- County-level
- Poisson fixed-effects model
- 2 emissions/socioeconomic scenarios
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Annual excess CV deaths associated with extreme heat
| Group | Value | Increase vs 2008–2019 |
|---|---|---|
| 2008–2019 | 1651 (95% CI 921–2381) excess deaths/year | |
| SSP2-4.5 | 4320 (95% CI 2369–6272) excess deaths/year | 162% (95% CI, 142-182) |
| SSP5-8.5 | 5491 (95% CI 3011–7972) excess deaths/year | 233% (95% CI, 206-259) |
Value
2008–20191651 (95% CI 921–2381) excess deaths/year
SSP2-4.54320 (95% CI 2369–6272) excess deaths/year
SSP5-8.55491 (95% CI 3011–7972) excess deaths/year
Increase vs 2008–2019
2008–2019Not reported in the abstract
SSP2-4.5162% (95% CI, 142-182)
SSP5-8.5233% (95% CI, 206-259)
Further findings
| Outcome | Times greater increase (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected increase in deaths by age (SSP2-4.5) · midcentury | 3.5 (3.2–3.8) | |
| Projected increase in deaths by race and ethnicity · midcentury | 4.6 (2.8–6.4) | |
| −50510Difference (linear scale) |
Projected increase in deaths by race and ethnicity · midcentury
- Not statistically significantly different for other race and ethnicity groups or between men and women
Original publication
Projected Change in the Burden of Excess Cardiovascular Deaths Associated With Extreme Heat by Midcentury (2036–2065) in the Contiguous United States. Circulation. Published 30 October 2023. doi:10.
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it