Temperature-Attributable Cardiovascular Mortality in Europe Under Future Climate Scenarios: Projected Impacts of Population Aging and Climate Change to 2080
Authors' conclusion
tCVD mortality across Europe is projected to double by late-century, driven by dramatic heat increases and substantially amplified by population aging. These findings support greater integration of temperature-related CVD risk into clinical practice and public health policy.
Study context
- Population
- Europe, 37 countriesland cells across 37 countries
- Participants
- 12,411 participants
- Comparison
- SSP2-4.5 vs SSP5-8.5
Methodological details0.25° × 0.25° grid, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, five bias-corrected climate models
- 0.25° × 0.25° grid
- 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations
- Five bias-corrected climate models
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Temperature-attributable CVD deaths at baseline · baseline
Annual cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths attributable to non-optimal temperature
168,586
144,961–192,293
Rate per 100,000
31.4
27.0–35.8
Cold-to-heat ratio
5:1
Further findings
- Total tCVD mortality under SSP5-8.5 · late-century
- 62.4 [48.5-76.2] · 441,772 [343,627-540,116] events
- Total tCVD mortality under SSP5-8.5 — Heat-attributable rates projected rise
- 472%
Effect of population aging · late century
- Population aging may amplify total projected mortality beyond climate change alone
- over 80%
- Without aging, cold-attributable rates may decline over the century rather than rise
Original publication
Temperature-Attributable Cardiovascular Mortality in Europe Under Future Climate Scenarios: Projected Impacts of Population Aging and Climate Change to 2080. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 19 October 2026. doi:10.
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it