Heart failure & cardiomyopathies

Seattle proportional risk model in GISSI-HF: Estimated benefit of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) in patients with EF less than 50%

Am Heart JPublished Secondary analysis of the GISSI-HF randomised trial

Authors' conclusion

The SPRM discriminated SCD vs non-SCD in GISSI-HF, both in patients with EF ≤35% and with EF 36% to 50%.

Study context

Population
Heart failure (HF) patients with EF ≤50% in the GISSI-HF trial
Participants
6,750 patients
Comparison
Seattle Proportional Risk Model (SPRM)-predicted proportion of sudden cardiac death (SCD) ≥50% vs <50%
Primary endpoint
Accuracy of the SPRM in predicting SCD vs non-SCD and potential ICD benefit

Primary result

As reported in the abstract

SCD vs non-SCD prediction by SPRM · 1 year

SPRM predicted SCD vs non-SCD, OR

1.92

P < 0.0001

Estimated proportion of SCD

44%

Observed proportion of SCD

41%

Further findings

OutcomeEF ≤35%EF 36% to 50%
SPRM ≥50%, by EFFifty percent43%
Estimated ICD HR (SPRM ≥50%)0.640.65

Deaths

All-cause deaths
1,892
SCDs
610

ICD eligibility

Eligible by traditional criteria (EF ≤35%, NYHA II or III)
64.5%
Estimated ICD benefit, traditional criteria
0.81
Eligible by SPRM >50%
47.8%
Of which EF >35%
30.2%

Original publication

Seattle proportional risk model in GISSI-HF: Estimated benefit of ICD in patients with EF less than 50%. Am Heart J. Published 31 May 2024. doi:10.1016/j.ahj.2024.05.014

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