Time Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Across the BRICS: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Key Nations With Emerging Economies Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Authors' conclusion
Except for Brazil, reductions of CVD mortality across the BRICS have been less than that in North America, such that China, India, and South Africa contribute an increasing proportion of global CVD deaths.
Study context
- Population
- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), 1992–2016
- Outcome
- CVD mortality trends (age, period and birth cohort effects)
- Follow-up
- 1992–2016
Methodological detailsage-period-cohort modeling, Mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- Age-period-cohort modeling
- Mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
CVD age-standardized mortality rate change
BRICS
−17%
North America
−39%
- Cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths across the BRICS in 2016
- 8.4 million
- Share of increased all-cause deaths from increase in CVD deaths
- Eighty-eight percent
- Ischemic heart disease age-standardized mortality increased slightly
- 2%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
- Improving period and cohort risks generally, except worsening period effects in India and greater IHD risks in Chinese cohorts born in the 1950s and 1960s
Original publication
Time Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Across the BRICS: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Key Nations With Emerging Economies Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Circulation. Published 16 January 2020. doi:10.
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