Congenital heart disease

Trends in Arrhythmia-Related Mortality Associated With Congenital Heart Disease in the United States

JACC AdvPublished retrospective analysis

Authors' conclusion

Arrhythmia-related mortality associated with CHD declined over 26 years, but progress has stalled or reversed since 2012, especially among the elderly, certain regions, and racial groups.

Study context

Population
Arrhythmia-related deaths involving congenital heart disease (CHD) as a contributing cause of death in the United States, 1999 to 2024arrhythmia-related deaths involving documented CHD
Participants
24,711 deaths
Outcome
Overall AAMR
Follow-up
1999 to 2024
Methodological detailsmultiple cause-of-death records, Joinpoint regression, exploratory ARIMA projections through 2034
  • Multiple cause-of-death records
  • Joinpoint regression
  • Exploratory ARIMA projections through 2034

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

AAMR in 1999

0.42

AAMR in 2024

0.30

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

AAMR by sex

Males had consistently higher mortality

AAMR by race/ethnicity

All racial groups showed declines, but non-Hispanic Black individuals had the highest rates

AAMR by urbanization

Large metropolitan areas experienced the most rapid decline, while rural areas had persistently elevated mortality

AAMR by age

Infants had the highest mortality, while ages 15 to 24 showed the fastest decline
Adults ≥55 years of age demonstrated increasing mortality beginning in the mid-2000s, most prominently in those 75-84 years of age

Exploratory projections of overall AAMR · through 2034

Overall AAMR will stabilize around
0.30
Continued increases in the 75-84-year group
  • Exploratory

Original publication

Trends in Arrhythmia-Related Mortality Associated With Congenital Heart Disease in the United States. JACC Adv. Published 18 August 2026. doi:10.1016/j.jacadv.2026.103121

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