Cardiometabolic & kidneyCohort study
Validation and comparison of cardiovascular risk prediction equations in Chinese patients with Type 2 diabetes
- Retrospective cohort study
- electronic health records-based
- external validation
Authors' conclusion
Diabetes-specific CVD risk prediction models showed better discrimination for patients with diabetes. High-risk patients selected by different models varied significantly. Age-specific cut-offs selected fewer patients at high CVD risk especially in women.
Study context
- Population
- Chinese patients with T2DM, CHERRY EHR-based cohort2,605 cardiovascular disease (CVD) events
- Participants
- 46,558 patients
- Exposure
- Diabetes-specific CVD risk models vs general population-based models
- Outcome
- Performance (discrimination) of four models for 5-year CVD risk
- Follow-up
- 5 years
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
C-statistic · median 5.8-year follow-up
| Group | C-statistic, men | C-statistic, women |
|---|---|---|
| ADVANCE | 0.711 (95% CI 0.693-0.729) | 0.742 (0.725-0.759) |
| HK | 0.701 (0.683-0.719) | 0.732 (0.718-0.747) |
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | ADVANCE | HK | PCE | China-PAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calibration: risk underestimation | ||||
| Underestimation, men (recalibrated) | 1.2% | Not reported in the abstract | Not reported in the abstract | Not reported in the abstract |
| Underestimation, women (recalibrated) | 16.8% | Not reported in the abstract | Not reported in the abstract | Not reported in the abstract |
| Underestimation, men | Not reported in the abstract | Not reported in the abstract | 41.9% | Not reported in the abstract |
| Underestimation, women | Not reported in the abstract | Not reported in the abstract | 24.2% | Not reported in the abstract |
Overlap of high-risk patients selected by every model pair (age-specific cut-offs)
- Overlap range
- 22.6% to 51.2%
High-risk patients selected by recalibrated ADVANCE: fixed 5% vs age-specific cut-offs
- Men: fixed cut-off vs age-specific
- 7400 vs 7102
- Women: age-specific vs fixed cut-off
- 2646 vs 3647
Original publication
Validation and comparison of cardiovascular risk prediction equations in Chinese patients with Type 2 diabetes. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 14 June 2023. doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwad198
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it