Worldwide trends in mortality for hypertensive heart disease from 1990 to 2019 with projection to 2034: data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study
Authors' conclusion
The HHD death burden in 2019 is vast and is expected to increase rapidly in the next decade, particularly for LMICs.
Study context
- Population
- Worldwide hypertensive heart disease (HHD) mortality, GBD 2019, 1990–2019
- Outcome
- HHD mortality trends (age, period, cohort effects) and projected HHD deaths
- Follow-up
- 1990–2019; projection to 2034
Methodological detailsage-period-cohort model, Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) projection to 2034
- Age-period-cohort model
- Bayesian APC projection to 2034
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Global HHD deaths
Global HHD deaths in 2019
1.16 million
Projected global HHD deaths in 2034 (largest increment in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs))
1.57 million
Annual percentage change in mortality 1990–2019, middle/high-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) countries
−2.06%
Annual percentage change in mortality 1990–2019, low SDI countries
−1.09%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Premature deaths (aged under 60 years), low SDI countries · 2019
- Proportion of premature deaths remained
- 24%
Country trends among LMICs
- Countries (incl. Indonesia, Philippines, Pakistan) with unfavourable or worsening risks for recent periods and birth cohorts
- 63
- Brazil, China and Ethiopia: improving trends over time and in recent birth cohorts
Original publication
Worldwide trends in mortality for hypertensive heart disease from 1990 to 2019 with projection to 2034: data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 4 September 2023. doi:10.
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