Heart failure & cardiomyopathies

Age-Adjusted Natriuretic Peptide Thresholds for a Diagnosis of Heart Failure in the Community: Diagnostic Accuracy Study

ESC Heart FailPublished Diagnostic accuracy study

Authors' conclusion

At ESC HFA age-adjusted thresholds, the number of referrals required for HF diagnostic assessment are substantially reduced, but with some (likely lower risk) cases initially being undetected.

Study context

Population
Patients with NT-proBNP tests, linked primary and secondary care data, England, 2004–201814,585 (9.4%) diagnosed with heart failure (HF)
Participants
155,347 patients
Comparison
European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Heart Failure Association (HFA) age-adjusted NT-proBNP thresholds vs ESC single threshold ≥125 pg/mL
Outcome
NT-proBNP test performance (sensitivity, specificity) for HF diagnosis
Methodological detailslinked primary and secondary care data
  • Linked primary and secondary care data

Performance

As reported in the abstract

StrategySensitivitySensitivity (<50, 50-74, ≥75 years)SpecificitySpecificity (<50, 50-74, ≥75 years)
Single threshold
94.6% (95% CI 94.2-95.0)Sensitivity on a scale from 0 to 100 percent
— not stated in the abstract
50.0% (49.7-50.3)Specificity on a scale from 0 to 100 percent
— not stated in the abstract
Age-adjusted thresholds— not stated in the abstract83.5%, 88.5%, 84.4%— not stated in the abstract77.6%, 67.8%, 63.5%
High-risk threshold
38.9% (38.1-39.7)Sensitivity on a scale from 0 to 100 percent
— not stated in the abstract
96.1% (96.0-96.2)Specificity on a scale from 0 to 100 percent
— not stated in the abstract

Sensitivity

Single threshold94.6% (95% CI 94.2-95.0)
Age-adjusted thresholds— not stated in the abstract
High-risk threshold38.9% (38.1-39.7)
Sensitivity on a scale from 0 to 100 percent

Sensitivity (<50, 50-74, ≥75 years)

Single threshold— not stated in the abstract
Age-adjusted thresholds83.5%, 88.5%, 84.4%
High-risk threshold— not stated in the abstract

Specificity

Single threshold50.0% (49.7-50.3)
Age-adjusted thresholds— not stated in the abstract
High-risk threshold96.1% (96.0-96.2)
Specificity on a scale from 0 to 100 percent

Specificity (<50, 50-74, ≥75 years)

Single threshold— not stated in the abstract
Age-adjusted thresholds77.6%, 67.8%, 63.5%
High-risk threshold— not stated in the abstract

— not stated in the abstract

Further findings

Test performance by body mass index (BMI)

High BMI associated with lower sensitivity at each age-adjusted threshold, improved with adjustment by obesity category

Test performance by sex

Test performance similar in women and men

Original publication

Age-Adjusted Natriuretic Peptide Thresholds for a Diagnosis of Heart Failure in the Community: Diagnostic Accuracy Study. ESC Heart Fail. Published 27 July 2025. doi:10.1002/ehf2.15383

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