Assessing Differences Between Epigenetic versus Chronologic Age for Cardiovascular Risk Assessments in the United States
Main finding · All-cause mortalityResult — go to the resultHazard ratio 1.57 per 5-percentage-point increase in predicted risk 95% CI 1.45–1.70Authors' conclusion
Biologic PREVENT variants were associated with mortality but did not improve discrimination compared with chronologic PREVENT, suggesting biological aging metrics may complement rather than replace chronological age in cardiovascular risk prediction.
Study context
- Population
- Adults aged 50–79 years without baseline cardiovascular disease and with DNA methylation data507 participants died, including 140 cardiovascular deaths, mean follow-up 17.35 years
- Participants
- 1,516 adults
- Exposure
- Substituting epigenetic age for chronologic age within PREVENT
- Outcome
- All-cause mortality
Methodological detailsSurvey weighted Cox models, Weighted Harrell C statistics, 95% CIs obtained by bootstrap resampling
- Survey weighted Cox models
- Weighted Harrell C statistics
- 95% CIs obtained by bootstrap resampling
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Hazard ratio
1.57 per 5-percentage-point increase in predicted risk
95% CI 1.45–1.70
Chronologic PREVENT
HR 1.57 per 5-percentage-point increase in predicted risk (95% CI 1.45–1.70)
Per 5-percentage-point increase in predicted risk, as printed
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Chronologic PREVENTC | Biologic PREVENT variants |
|---|---|---|
| Discrimination for all-cause mortality (C statistic) | 0.74 (95% CI 0.72–0.77) | C range 0.66-0.73 |
| Discrimination for cardiovascular mortality (C statistic) | 0.78 (95% CI 0.73–0.84) | C range 0.71-0.77 |
Cardiovascular mortality
- Biologic variants HR range
- 1.47-1.67
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
Assessing Differences Between Epigenetic versus Chronologic Age for Cardiovascular Risk Assessments in the United States. Circ Popul Health Outcomes. Published 31 August 2026. doi:10.
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