Arrhythmias & electrophysiology
Association of blood inflammatory biomarkers with the incidence of atrial fibrillation among senior adults: An 8-year prospective cohort study
Authors' conclusion
Elevated baseline levels of RDW, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, and uric acid increased the risk of AF, whereas elevated baseline levels of eosinophils, platelets, TyG, and cholesterol decreased the risk.
Study context
- Population
- Healthy senior adults from the Guangzhou Heart Study
- Participants
- 3,265 adults
- Exposure
- Highest vs lowest tertiles of blood inflammatory biomarkers
- Outcome
- Incident AF (by ECG and clinical examination)
- Follow-up
- Until end of 2024
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Incident AF
- Atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence during follow-up
- 5.33%
- Total bilirubin, highest vs lowest tertile: increased AF risk
- 1.80-fold
- Direct bilirubin, highest vs lowest tertile: increased AF risk
- 1.68-fold
- Uric acid, highest vs lowest tertile: increased AF risk
- 1.63-fold
- Eosinophils, highest vs lowest tertile: reduced AF risk
- 34%
- Platelets, highest vs lowest tertile: reduced AF risk
- 33%
- TyG, highest vs lowest tertile: reduced AF risk
- 33%
- Cholesterol, highest vs lowest tertile: reduced AF risk
- 41%
- RDW, per 1-unit increment: increased AF risk
- 11%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
AF prediction, RSF model with 14 predictors (best of 5 machine learning methods) · internal validation only
AUC Training set 0.832 · Validation set 0.731
Sensitivity
Specificity
Concordance index Training set 0.767 · Validation set 0.697
Brier score Training set 0.032 · Validation set 0.031
Original publication
Association of blood inflammatory biomarkers with the incidence of atrial fibrillation among senior adults: An 8-year prospective cohort study. Heart Rhythm. Published 31 October 2025. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →