Cardiovascular Morbidity and Functional Dependency in an Ageing Europe: EU27 Projections to 2050
Authors' conclusion
Severe ADL dependency could increase faster than the older cardiovascular population, but sustained functional improvements could reverse this trajectory. Cardiovascular care planning should account for both population growth and changing functional health.
Study context
- Population
- Older adults (aged ≥65 years) with cardiovascular disease across the EU27
- Outcome
- Population aged ≥65 years with CVD
- Follow-up
- 2021 to 2050
Methodological detailsdecomposition and sensitivity analyses, uncertainty propagation was incomplete
- Decomposition and sensitivity analyses
- Uncertainty propagation was incomplete
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Projected increase from 44.1 to 59.2 million
+34.3%
Further findings
Modelled co-occurrence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with severe activities of daily living (ADL) dependency (not dependency attributable to CVD) · 2021 to 2050
- Increase from 4.06 to 6.21 million
- +53.0%
- Proportion raised from 9.2% to 10.5%
Drivers of the increase in number
- Demographic change drove the increase in number, partly offset by declining CVD prevalence
Annual relative ADL declines needed to stabilise the proportion and number
- Stabilise the proportion
- 0.45%
- Stabilise the number
- 1.46%
- Under reference assumptions
Co-occurrence of CVD with severe ADL dependency under continuation of EHIS declines
- Number reduced to 3.61 million
- −11.1%
- Proportion reduced to
- 6.1%
- Post hoc
- Fixed country and sex weights under the same CVD trajectory
Original publication
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