Heart failure & cardiomyopathies
Development and Validation of a Multifactorial Nomogram to Predict 48 Month Mortality in Decompensated Heart Failure
Authors' conclusion
Both the ChE- and PNI-based prediction models effectively predict the long-term prognosis in patients over 60 years of age with decompensated HF. The multifactorial nomogram model shows superior performance
Study context
- Population
- Patients aged ≥60 years with decompensated heart failure (HF)training 402, validation 101
- Participants
- 503 patients
- Comparison
- Multifactorial nomogram vs Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI)-based and cholinesterase (ChE)-based models
- Outcome
- All-cause mortality (model discrimination, C-index)
- Follow-up
- 48 months
Methodological detailstraining and validation cohorts, LASSO and multivariate logistic regression
- Training and validation cohorts
- LASSO and multivariate logistic regression
Performance
As reported in the abstract
C-index, training cohort
Nomogram
0.926
C-index · 95% CI 0.896–0.950
PNI
0.883
C-index
ChE
0.804
C-index
- Nomogram outperformed PNI and ChE (Z-tests)
- P < 0.05
Further findings
C-index, validation cohort
- Nomogram C-index in validation cohort
- 0.913
- Z-tests, P < 0.05
Calibration and decision curve analysis
- Calibration and decision curve analysis confirmed model reliability; greater net benefit than PNI and ChE alone
Original publication
Development and Validation of a Multifactorial Nomogram to Predict 48 Month Mortality in Decompensated Heart Failure. ESC Heart Fail. Published 6 August 2024. doi:10.
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