Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Cardiovascular Risk in Reproductive-Aged Women
Authors' conclusion
Although the model showed modest predictive accuracy and performance, the findings highlight the importance of sex-specific risk factors for identifying women at high risk of CVD in the postpartum period.
Study context
- Population
- Women aged 15 to 45 years with 1 randomly selected delivery from 1999 to 2017 in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink database, screened within the first-year postpartumwomen in the cohort
- Participants
- 262,891 womenEvents: 943 (0.81 per 1,000 person-years)
- Predictors
- Traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, along with social deprivation, polycystic ovary syndrome, prior use of oral contraceptives, depression, thyroid disorders, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, gestational diabetes, preterm birth, small-for-gestational-age birthweight, parity, and history of pregnancy complications
- Predicted outcome
- incident CVD
Methodological detailsinternal validation via bootstrapping, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method, accelerated failure time Weibull model
- Internal validation via bootstrapping
- Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method
- Accelerated failure time Weibull model
Model performance
As reported in the abstract
C-statistic
Optimism-corrected, median (Q1-Q3)
0.637(0.623-0.650)
Optimism-corrected calibration slope, median (Q1-Q3)
0.919
0.905–0.930
Further findings
- Median follow-up (Q1-Q3)
- 3.8 years (1.5-7.9)
Original publication
Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Cardiovascular Risk in Reproductive-Aged Women. JACC Adv. Published May 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →